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War in Ukraine: Backstories You Never Hear
Part Four of a Four-Part Series
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When Ukraine gained independence from Russia in 1991, the nuclear arsenal within Ukraine was the third largest in the world. ICBMs, warheads, and strategic bombers had been left behind by the Russians.
That's the backdrop of today's U.S. involvement in Ukraine. In formal diplomatic protocols, Washington assured Ukraine that if it gave up its nuclear arsenal — returning it to Russia for dismantling — the U.S. would assure the sovereignty of Ukraine and the integrity of its borders.
The current debate in Congress about additional military aid to Ukraine is actually a debate about what obligations the U.S. incurred by pressing Ukraine's concession on nuclear weapons. it's also a debate about how the Russo-Ukraine War is likely to end, no matter how much aid the U.S. supplies to Kiev.
Putin is convinced that time is on his side. A war of attrition, he believes, will not only wear down the Ukrainians, but wear away the commitment of Ukraine's allies. He is willing to wait for these developments to mature so that he can have the upper hand in dictating a final settlement.
In this espisode I explore the postwar realities which will beset both Russia and Ukraine, however the war ends. For Ukraine, its economy heavily dependent on its wheat explorts, the future turns heavily on whether it can regain access to ports that it has lost. Without those ports, Ukraine's recovery and its ability to rebuild its bombed out cities and infrastructure will be shackled.
But Russia's postwar challenges are daunting, as well. I examine the ramifications that this war will have on their military, on their economy, on political unrest, and on their already alarming decline in population.
Both nations are likely to require a generation or more to return to return to any semblance of their prewar world.
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Check out previous episodes in this four-part series.